Stronger Demand in a More Selective Valley Market
All charts and market statistics in this update are from the Cromford® Report / Cromford Associates LLC using ARMLS residential resale data. Data is current through early September 2026 and used with permission.
The Scottsdale real estate market is performing better than the broader Greater Phoenix market, but sellers should not confuse strong demand with guaranteed results.
Across the Valley, homes are taking longer to sell, price changes remain common and buyers are negotiating more carefully. Scottsdale stands apart because its supply-and-demand balance is substantially stronger than most other major Valley cities.
Scottsdale Leads the Five Largest Valley Markets
The Cromford Market Index, or CMI, measures the balance between supply and demand. A reading of 100 represents a balanced market. Numbers above 100 favor sellers, while readings below 100 favor buyers.
As of September 3, Scottsdale had a CMI of 156.0, up 6% from 146.6 one month earlier. Scottsdale ranked third among all 18 cities tracked, behind only Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills.
Among the five largest municipal real estate markets in Greater Phoenix, Scottsdale is clearly the strongest:
| Market | Current CMI | Monthly change | Market direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottsdale | 156.0 | +6% | Strong seller-leaning market |
| Chandler | 138.5 | +1% | Seller-leaning |
| Mesa | 117.4 | +1% | Mildly seller-leaning |
| Phoenix | 115.6 | -6% | Mildly seller-leaning, weakening |
| Glendale | 111.7 | -8% | Mildly seller-leaning, weakening |
Scottsdale is not simply benefiting from a rising regional market. Its position is strengthening while Phoenix and Glendale are moving in the opposite direction.
Scottsdale Is Outperforming the Overall Valley
The CMI for all areas and residential property types within ARMLS was approximately 80.1 on August 31. It had gradually declined from around 83 in March.
This means the overall Valley market is buyer-leaning while Scottsdale, at 156, remains firmly seller-leaning. Scottsdale’s index is nearly twice the regional reading.
That does not mean every Scottsdale property is in a seller’s market. Condominiums, entry-level homes, older properties and multimillion-dollar estates can have very different supply levels. However, the citywide comparison confirms that Scottsdale currently has one of the Valley’s strongest overall demand profiles.
Closed Sales Weakened, but Forward Demand Improved
Greater Phoenix recorded 5,606 closed listings in August, down 5.6% from August 2025 and 13% from July. Because August had one fewer working day than July, closings per working day declined by approximately 9%.
Monthly dollar volume was $3.317 billion, down 1.4% year over year and 15.9% from July.
Forward-looking measures were more encouraging:
- Pending listings increased 4.5% year over year.
- Listings under contract increased 0.6%.
- The contract ratio rose 3.9% from July.
- The annual sales rate remained 5.8% above last year.
Buyers appear to be returning somewhat earlier than normal for the fall season, but that activity has not yet reached the closed-sales data.
The longer-term dollar-volume chart shows how much the Valley market has expanded. Residential resale volume reached $27.7 billion year to date through early August 2026.
The 2026 year-to-date figure should not be compared directly with completed annual totals. It does show that the current market remains large and active despite operating below the extraordinary 2021–2022 volume peak.
Inventory Is Easing Rather Than Surging
Active Greater Phoenix listings excluding UCB and CCBS declined 1.6% during August to 23,674. The reported annual increase of 0.5% is entirely explained by the addition of Sedona and Verde Valley listings to ARMLS. On a like-for-like basis, supply is effectively unchanged from last year.
Days of inventory declined from 127.1 in July to 126.0 in August, compared with 133.4 one year earlier.
The weekly chart also demonstrates the market’s normal seasonal pattern. Inventory tends to build through the first half of the year and ease later as listings sell, expire or are withdrawn.
Listing cancellations are part of that adjustment. The current-year series reached approximately 417 weekly cancellations in week 34.
Some sellers are choosing to withdraw rather than accept the price or terms currently offered by buyers. This limits the buildup of inventory, but it also demonstrates the gap that sometimes exists between seller expectations and market value.
Prices Are Soft, but This Is Not a Collapse
The Greater Phoenix median sale price was $445,500 in August, down 1.4% from July and up just 0.7% year over year. Average price per square foot fell 1.9% during the month to $291.53, although it remained 3.8% above August 2025.
The longer-term chart gives these numbers context. The Valley median remains below the 2022 peak near $480,000, but it is still approximately 34% above the $340,000 level recorded in early 2021.
Since early 2024, the median has generally moved within a narrow range of approximately $445,000 to $460,000. That looks more like price consolidation than a broad decline.
Active-listing price per square foot was up only 0.5% year over year as of September 6.
That is effectively flat. Sellers are no longer able to assume that time alone will support a higher asking price. The home must compare favorably with available competition.
Price Reductions Remain Common
Cromford recorded roughly 2,400 to 2,700 price changes per week in the most recent period. This is below the 2025 peak of approximately 3,700, but it remains historically elevated.
Overpricing rarely creates additional negotiating leverage in this environment. It more often produces lost market time followed by a reduction after the strongest initial exposure has passed.
Scottsdale’s strong CMI gives sellers a better demand environment than most Valley cities, but buyers still compare price, condition, location, lot quality, upgrades and expected repair costs.
Homes Are Taking Longer to Sell
Average cumulative days on market for closed Greater Phoenix listings has increased to around 90 days.
This is far slower than the 2021–early 2022 market, when many homes sold almost immediately. It remains below the roughly 100–135 day periods experienced during the housing-crash era.
The current market requires patience, but the lengthening sales cycle does not by itself indicate distress.
About One-Third of Listings Are Still Failing to Sell
The Greater Phoenix listing-success rate recovered from 59.6% in July to 64.7% in August. It remains slightly below the 65.4% rate recorded in August 2025.
This means nearly two-thirds of listings are successfully reaching a sale, but approximately one out of every three is not closing under its original listing attempt.
The current rate is well below the 90% or higher success rates of 2020 and 2021. It is also far above the 20%–40% range experienced during the 2007–2009 collapse.
This is a selective market, not a dysfunctional one.
Scottsdale Luxury Homes Require Separate Analysis
Scottsdale contains a large share of the Valley’s luxury inventory, and market conditions change considerably by price:
| Price range | Months of supply | Active-listing DOM | Listing success |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1M–$1.5M | 4.6 | 101 | 58.7% |
| $1.5M–$2M | 3.8 | 119 | 63.1% |
| $2M–$3M | 6.0 | 122 | 48.7% |
| $3M–$5M | 6.9 | 149 | 56.5% |
| $5M–$7.5M | 7.4 | 174 | 46.7% |
| $7.5M–$10M | 13.8 | 168 | 66.7%* |
| Over $10M | 13.3 | 228 | 36.4% |
The $7.5 million to $10 million segment has limited transaction volume, making the success rate more volatile.
These figures cover Greater Phoenix single-family homes, rather than Scottsdale alone, but they are directly relevant to Scottsdale’s upper-end market.
A home between $1 million and $2 million operates in a more liquid market than a property above $3 million. At $5 million and above, the buyer pool becomes substantially smaller, inventory lasts longer and pricing errors become more costly.
Distressed Sales Are Not Driving the Market
Maricopa County trustee-deed activity remains close to historical lows and dramatically below the foreclosure-heavy 2008–2012 period.
This may be the most important evidence against comparisons with the last housing crash. The market is slowing because buyers are cautious, affordability is constrained and sellers face more competition. It is not being driven by a wave of foreclosures or forced sales.
What This Means for Scottsdale Buyers and Sellers
Scottsdale buyers have more negotiating room than they did several years ago, especially when a home is overpriced, has accumulated market time or requires meaningful repairs. Buyers can conduct proper due diligence and compare alternatives without the same pressure to waive protections.
Scottsdale sellers have a genuine advantage over sellers in most other Valley cities. The CMI shows that clearly. But strong citywide demand does not eliminate the need for accurate pricing, proper preparation and careful comparison with competing homes.
The strongest strategy is to use Scottsdale’s demand advantage to price confidently within the supported range. Pricing substantially above the market can waste the listing’s most valuable early exposure and lead to avoidable reductions later.
Scottsdale is currently a strong market within a softer Valley environment. That combination creates opportunity for both sides, but it rewards accurate information and disciplined decision-making.
Contact The Cooper Group Success Property Brokers for a property-specific analysis of your Scottsdale home, neighborhood or purchase criteria.
