A Market in Motion
In the late summer sun, the Phoenix real estate market is presenting a curious duality. Depending on one’s vantage point, the landscape appears either to be firming for sellers or softening from a recent peak. It’s a narrative with conflicting chapters, demanding a closer read of the underlying data.
The Local Buzz: A Seller’s Resurgence
For those selling property in the Phoenix metro area, the last six weeks have ushered in a period of cautious optimism. According to the latest analysis from the Cromford® Report, the market is continuing a steady march in their favor. The Cromford® Market Index (CMI), a key barometer of supply and demand, has seen an average monthly jump of 9.4% as of late August.
The mechanics of this shift are textbook: supply is contracting while demand is showing renewed life. This has altered the market equilibrium, fostering a more competitive environment. As of August 28, the composition of the 17 largest cities reflects this change:
- Seller’s Markets: 6 cities
- Balanced Markets: 4 cities
- Buyer’s Markets: 7 cities
Cities such as Fountain Hills, Cave Creek, and Scottsdale are demonstrating significant upward momentum, while Avondale, Gilbert, Chandler, Peoria, and Surprise are all posting CMI increases of over 10%. This hyper-local data suggests a tangible shift in market dynamics.
The National View: A Look in the Rearview Mirror
Lest we get too comfortable with the current trend, the latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® offers a sobering look in the rearview mirror. This index is, by its nature, a historical document; the report released in late August is essentially an analysis of market conditions from mid-May. It tells us where we were, not necessarily where we are going.
In this backward-looking index, Phoenix home prices slipped -0.55% for the month, placing our city 19th out of the 20 major metros tracked. Year-over-year, Phoenix is down a marginal -0.06%, trailing the national average gain of +1.89%.
This is not an isolated event. The Case-Shiller data reveals a clear geographic partition: cities in the North and Northeast are appreciating, while the South and West are broadly experiencing price stagnation or decline. Phoenix, it seems, is simply moving with its regional tide.
The Engine Room: Interest Rates and Demand
What explains this divergence between the leading local indicators and the lagging national reports? A significant factor is the trajectory of mortgage rates.
The typical 30-year fixed rate has receded to 6.52%. While this may not induce euphoria, it is a material improvement from the 7%+ rates seen at the start of the year. For those with a longer view, today’s rates represent a departure from the truly formidable borrowing climate of decades past. Between 1974 and 1991, for instance, a rate below 9% was a rare sight indeed. It’s a useful reminder that “normal” is a perpetually shifting baseline in housing finance.
This rate relief is already having a measurable effect. The Cromford® Demand Index has begun to climb from its early August trough. More concretely, the number of listings under contract is now running 6.9% ahead of this time last year, signaling that buyers are re-engaging with the market.
A Distant Bell: Watching Foreclosures
Elsewhere, the foreclosure market is beginning to stir. While new Notices of Trustee Sale remain low, the number of completed foreclosures (Trustee Deeds) in July reached its highest point since 2019. The analysis from the Cromford® Report attributes this not to a new wave of distress, but to the increased difficulty embattled homeowners face in selling their property before an auction. While these figures are far from constituting a storm on the horizon, they might be considered the first gathering of clouds—a data point to observe with diligence rather than alarm.
The Takeaway
The Phoenix housing market is navigating a complex transition. The immediate, forward-looking data reveals a clear trend favoring sellers, propelled by tightening inventory and resurgent demand. Yet, the broader, historical data serves as a reminder of the price softness that characterized the spring.
For now, the momentum appears to be with sellers. The critical question, as we move into the fall selling season, is whether this delicate balance of low supply and recovering demand can be sustained.
